I dream of business transformation opportunity!

As MBS student I always dreamt of an opportunity or being part of business transformation journey. So when I read bout NYT (New York Times) organization transformation from being a ad-driven to subscription driven business, I was extremely pleased. I am sure that this wasn’t easy change or at times very difficult to see it over multiyear changes.

Here is URL that document it – https://www.dropbox.com/s/qy3nfaxjiplmtcf/The%20(Not%20Failing)%20New%20York%20Times.pdf?dl=0

Summary of story

  1. It all started with high debt and falling revenue streams – going into negative vicious cycle – as business expanded in multiple non-core areas over years, falling paper-subscriptions, falling ad-revenues etc.
  2. Detail and blunt analysis was sponsored by top-exec team
  3. Hire top talent from top Tech companies to build digital infrastructure to conduct business (NYT hired from Google, FB, NetFlix and Tinder and many more)
  4. Identify core vicious business cycle that feed itself over years – excellent journalism attract more readers -> capital to invest in journalism -> even more subscriptions
  5. Identify associated (not non-core) business related to critical business – such as Podcasts or Apps for Crossword or Food, Tie-up with Google and FB to distribute their content.

What was not documented was

  1. how executive teams sponsored this transformation,
  2. what was internalization or mindset changed from fixed to growing,
  3. what were difficult decision made,
  4. what was impact on short term revenue,
  5. were there scenarios of default on debt interest payments

New book list

https://scottgorlick.substack.com/p/my-favorite-books-of-2018-87a01672ca58

yet another valuation blog

Over past 2 years, I have read contents that justify following – valuation matter, valuation consists of story, better narration results into premium, value investors focus on entry cost, price is what you pay – value is what you receive/get etc.

Technical analyst would argue that trend or breakouts matter more than valuations.

Market is too big to accommodate all notions mentioned but I admire retail user who try to value a stock based on their assessment.  It is quite time consuming work. Today, i found one such blog which focus on valuation.

https://wisdomofcrowds.in/2020/08/15/syngene-valuation-quantifying-the-qualitative/

 

 

simple value visusalizations

Its takes ages to understand value of simplicity. It takes further time to represent to others. Two years ago, I did minor representation on dynamic views of team – that we practiced at my work place. Via Twitter, I found VisualizeValue account and their portal – who uses simple black/white motif to represent value.

https://shop.visualizevalue.com/pages/about-vv

20 things about investing

It’s been almost 3 years that I started investing in equity. This blog summarized rules/guidelines very well. Even when such material was available before I started investing, it is difficult to believe some literature and some of this would not happen without real experience – e.g. predictions, turnaround stories, government impact due to policies, concentration v/s diversification or higher high, lower lows etc.

I hope reading (or re-reading it) this blog help reinforce some into action and learing.

20 Rules for Markets and Investing

 

hypersynchronicity

This is good blog that clarify why market isn’t reflecting correct state of economy.

>> (Copying original text as is – with due respect for author and his copyright)

Groupthink and herd behavior are pervasive near a market’s peak. An unstable number of investors has herded into an asset class. These investors are hoping to sell to other investors who may have a similar philosophy but have an even greater risk appetite.

The stock market environment of mid-February 2020 appeared to be very hypersynchronous. And today’s stock market environment appears very hypersynchronous.

“Markets now confront a lethal brew of passivity, product proliferation, automation and hypersynchronous behavioral responses,” Jim writes in Aftermath. “This accumulation of risk factors is entirely new and outside the experience of any trader or quant.”

>>

Refer detail text here – https://dailyreckoning.com/investors-feel-bulletproof-again/

 

Today’s read

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/lockdown-pharma-sales-slump-19-month-on-month-in-april-as-demand-hit-11588580843426.html

This article talks about slump in pharma sale – due to low purchase of medicine due to lockdown. Just because people stayed indoor, they didn’t harm themselves. It also talked about stock-level at stockers or at dealers etc.

Click to access asian-paints.pdf

There is never ending material on good quality stocks – Asian Paint being one of them.  Here is another good reference and writeup. I wish that stock to be available at some lower cost.

View at Medium.com

ITC write up for reference.

CAPE Ratio

I found this ratio to identify when is good time to buy – from article published in liveMint – https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/it-s-a-good-time-to-stock-up-11586334027722.html

I am posting it here further investigation and read.

Similarly Motilal Oswal’s annual wealth creation study talks about PEG ratio and most of wealth is created by stocks that were bought when PEG < 1.

One of WB’s ratio to track is Market Cap of Equity Market v/s GDP of country.

MSCI Emerging Market index

This is follow up post to https://wethypeople.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/passive-sale/

Today’s article in ET represent why deferring some decision by Indian Govt forced MSCI to deferred their review of increasing India’s weight in their  “MSCI Emerging Market index”. MSCI shall review it in their Aug 2020 Quarterly review.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/real-reason-behind-d-street-selloff-fdi-order-that-didnt-convince-msci/articleshow/74930947.cms

MSCI cited lack of implementation of the government decision to raise the statutory foreign portfolio investor (FPI) limit in domestic companies from 24 per cent to the respective sectoral foreign investment limits. That FDI limit change was to take effect on Wednesday, April 1, 2020.

The increase in MSCI India’s weightage in MSCI Emerging Market index to 9.6 per cent from 8.9 per cent alone could bring in passive flows of $2.5 billion, Morgan Stanley had said in December.

MSCI said it would re-assess the situation prior to the August 2020 Quarterly Index Review (QIR).